They started packing the lots and cracking the beers while most folks were still on morning coffee Thursday morning, firing up the grills and turning American Family Field into the world’s best-smelling outdoor brunch.
No, neither winter’s last chills nor highway-construction traffic would keep Milwaukee Brewers fans from their appointed tailgating rounds. The setups ranged from simply practical to practically zany, from modest charcoal grills to Sprinter vans equipped to feed legions, with Brewers flags fluttering from 20-foot-high makeshift flagpoles and Brewers hopes towering far higher. Same as it ever was.
This was Opening Day done the Milwaukee way, a baseball tradition unlike any other. And before the first pitch – officially delivered at 1:11 p.m. – more than a few conversations held between brats and brews discussed another Opening Day tradition: the perennial prediction of Brewers mediocrity from pundits and prognosticators. No matter how often the Brewers defy whatever odds were stacked against them, they are underdogs yet again. Same as it ever was.
It’s time to pick your Milwaukee favorites for the year!
Behind … The Pirates?
At season’s dawn, Fangraphs, that glorious baseball rabbit hole of all things statistically geeky, projected the Brewers to win 82.7 games. Yes, just one and 7/10 of a game above .500, just months removed from them winning a franchise-record 97, and from reaching the playoffs a seventh time in their last eight season.
Moreover, Fangraphs gave the Brewers a measly 23.9% chance to win the division and only a 40.7% chance to make the playoffs. For context, that’s longer odds than they gave the Pittsburgh Pirates – yes, those Pirates – a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015, and hasn’t even posted a winning record since 2018. They peg the moneybags Chicago Cubs, who just dropped $400 million on contracts and extensions, as clear favorites in the N.L. Central.
Over at ESPN, they’re slightly more optimistic about the Crew. As in very slightly. The Worldwide Leader classifies the Brewers as a “Should-Be Contender,” ranking them 11th overall in the league while projecting an 83-79 record and a 41% chance to make the playoffs. That’s distinctly behind the Cubs in the division, but at least ahead of those woebegone Pirates. The MLB.com folks, meanwhile, have the Brewers winning the third and final N.L. Wildcard spot, albeit with a slight nod toward past mea culpas: “Our voters have learned their lesson now: Never count out the Brewers.”
The largely pessimistic reasoning is rooted in yet another Brewers offseason of losing top talent – this time, it’s cornerstone pitcher Freddy Peralta – while banking on under-the-radar reinforcements. And it’s rooted in rivals like the Cubs making big, payroll-bloating moves while the Brewers modestly try to improve on the margins.
‘There’s No Secret Sauce’
But the Brewers’ collective response, to nobody’s surprise, amounts to a big, dismissive shrug. Because, they’ll tell you, it’s about the guys who are here, rather than the ones who are not.
“You’ve got to be here to know these guys,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy said before Thursday’s first pitch of 2026 was thrown. “Year in and year out, they don’t realize how close those guys are and what a team it is. There’s no secret sauce.”
Principal owner Mark Attanasio, when asked what the prognosticators keep missing, aimed for a more nuanced explanation that leaned into some of those statistically geeky Fangraphs notions.
“The way we do things is more complex. How many runs can we create, how many runs can we prevent, and how an entire group of players factors into that. And that’s more than the 26 guys that are in the clubhouse today,” Attanasio said. “Most people look at this star and that star, and with good reason, and our names maybe don’t line up. But our pitchers are hungry, we have among the best defenders each year, and I don’t think it’s easy to understand that.
“And even if you do, it’s kind of boring to write about.”
A Day of Demolition
And then, to the delight of a sellout crowd of 43,001, the Brewers went out and delivered the opposite of boring. They demolished the Chicago White Sox, 14-2, the franchise’s largest-ever season-opening victory.
More history came courtesy of starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski, who shook off a leadoff homer to strike out 11, most ever by a Brewers hurler on Opening Day. And Brewers relievers Aaron Ashby, Grant Anderson, DL Hall and Jake Woodruff iced things with more history by running the strikeout total to 20, tying the major league record – not just for Opening Day but ever – in a nine-inning game.
It’s one game, of course – and against the worst team in baseball the past two seasons – but the tailgaters went home happy, perhaps with even higher hopes of a season that might bring more history. The kind that truly defies the prognosticators, and comes with some rather shiny trophies, the kind earned for National League pennants and World Series titles.
“It’s the one thing we really have left to do here in terms of success,” Attanasio said in reference to his ownership tenure. “And if we do get to a World Series, it would be nice to win one. It’s a goal.”
Same as it ever was.
