Redistricting and the Squeaker in WI-06

Grothman’s victory in #WI06 now uncertain. A recount likely.@AP has uncalled the race until votes finalized. #wipolitics

— M.L. Johnson (@MLJohnsonOnline) August 13, 2014

The good folks at AP have “uncalled” the tight race between Republican primary contestants Glenn Grothman, the outspoken and sometimes controversial state senator, and Joe Leibham, a well-mannered, well-groomed state senator from Sheboygan. Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel says a recount “would seem likely” and provides bar graphs showing Grothman’s besting of Leibham in Fond du Lac and Ozaukee counties.

Ozaukee County? Yes, Ozaukee is now part of the 6th Congressional District, thanks to the redistricting fight that followed in the wake of the 2010 Census. Here’s the 6th as it stood between 2003 and 2013:

And here are the eastern regions of the current district. In the branch dipping into southeastern Wisconsin, Grothman has enjoyed a distinct advantage, not only on conservative talk radio but through coverage in local news media, where he’s a far more recognizable presence than Leibham.

Grothman has also fared well in the western reaches of the district, winning Marquette and Columbia counties, which has helped to balance out Leibham’s home court advantage in Sheboygan and Manitowoc.

It’s hard to tell from the above map, but Republican-friendly River Hills was also made part of the 6th District during redistricting, making it the only segment of Milwaukee County. (The unofficial results released by the county make it too early to tell which way River Hills voters swayed.)

(maps adapted from federal sources)