I predict that Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who is now seeking the Republican presidential nomination, will run on a third-party ticket next November. Here is why:
1. He is out of step with other Republicans.
Like all Republican presidential candidates, Paul wants to cut federal spending and taxes. But he would go much further than any of the others: Paul would cut a trillion dollars in the first year alone! He would also abolish the Federal Reserve System (established in 1913), which controls the U.S. money supply, issues currency and regulates banking. If his ideas were implemented, we could face a 1930s-style Depression.
Unlike other Republicans, he considers the war in Iraq a mistake, and opposes any efforts to keep Iran from going nuclear. He opposes all foreign aid and military assistance.
Other GOP candidates know all this, but don’t bother attacking him because they believe he has no chance of being nominated anyway.
2. A new group could provide nationwide ballot access.
AmericansElect (http://americanselect.org/) plans to select an independent presidential candidate via the Internet in June of 2012. Ron Paul’s young supporters have the tech-savvy to win this contest.
AmericansElect are now gathering signatures to place their ticket on the ballots of all 50 states. Each potential nominee will select his own running-mate, who must not be a member of the same political party.
3. He has done this before.
In 1988 Ron Paul was the presidential nominee of the Libertarian Party, so running on a third ticket does not scare him. He has repeatedly refused to rule-out doing so in 2012. At his age (76), Rep. Paul is not worried about blowing his chances for a future Republican nomination. (However, his son Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky would lose some credibility as a loyal Republican if he supported his father.)
Although numerous polls show that many (if not most) Americans are dissatisfied with the two-party system and would consider voting for an independent ticket, I doubt that Ron Paul would carry even one state. But all his votes would come from conservatives, so he might draw enough votes away from the Republican ticket to swing some states to the Democrats. That could be enough to re-elect President Obama.
