In typical Wisconsin fashion, the spring weather has truly been all over the place. In March, parts of the state were hit with historic amounts of snowfall and two weeks later, temperatures warmed up, melting all of the snow and welcoming in ice storms. Just about a month later, on April 15, evacuations were ordered as major rainfall hit the state, flooding basements and overflowing rivers and lakes, and tornado warnings rung out across its southern half.
In the days leading up to March’s Winter Storm Iona, Reddit users took to r/wisconsin to speculate about the rapidly changing weather reports coming in on their phones.
“One week it’s in the 60s and sunny. One week it’s windy as all get out and in the 40s. Now there’s a good chance of 6”-20” of snow depending on where you are,” one user said.
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Another user questioned why the forecast varied vastly across different weather service apps. In the comments, people discussed the number of inches of snow their phones were predicting – the data ranged anywhere from 0” to 15”. Many of us rely strictly on our mobile devices for forecasts these days, but is that system flawed? Well, sort of.
Are Weather Apps Accurate?
When it comes to accuracy, weather apps aren’t technically incorrect – they just don’t have all the information. “When it comes to your phone’s weather app, it’s usually pulling data from only one model or source,” says Brooke Brighton, Meteorologist at Spectrum News 1. “What’s missing is the forecasting element – deciphering multiple models and modes of data.”
According to Brighton and Tom Wach, FOX6’s Chief Meteorologist, most weather apps are using a single computer generated model to provide large amounts of weather data. Improvements in computer modeling and rendering allow you to see up to a week or more of forecasts in advance.
“I have been in TV weather for almost 23 years,” Wachs says. “It is wild to see how technology has changed. When I was an intern, it would take over an hour to render one graphic. Now it happens in seconds. Social media has also really changed the game in that you don’t have to wait until 10 p.m. to get your weather forecast anymore – when I started, radar data was not publicly available.”
Should I Use Weather Apps?
Wachs says weather apps are great tools as long as users know what they’re looking at. That’s where the importance of academically trained local meteorologists comes in. Drew Burgoyne, Chief Meteorologist at CBS 58, says most weather apps aren’t modified by humans.
“[The apps] take rapidly changing weather data and plug that into a certain location,” Burgoyne said. “As the models change the forecast, your weather app will also change. That could mean big swings in the numbers for your area. Depending upon what model your app is using, the updates can become more frequent.”
Meteorologists like Burgoyne, Wachs and Brighton take the data from multiple models to create their forecasts. When looking at multiple data sets, they’re able to weed out outliers while factoring in local topography and mesoscale features to dial in a highly specific forecast for the area they cover.
“Most models that the app uses won’t do that,” Burgoyne explains. “You are just getting straight model output.”
Your phone’s weather app is best used for generalized forecasts like predicting how many days of sun there will be this week, but when it comes to specifics, stick to following a meteorologist. It’s important to understand the limitations of current technology to stay safe and prepared when extreme weather events occur. Burgoyne, Wachs and Brighton believe artificial intelligence will improve the field of meteorology by allowing even more data to be analyzed at once, but nothing will beat true local experience.
“Your local meteorologists are very important because we went to school to learn about how the atmosphere operates,” Brighton says. “We have that foundational knowledge in place and that helps us make a more educated guess when it comes to forecasting. We’re going to take the time to decipher all weather data coming in, use our knowledge of how the atmosphere operates along with similarities to past weather events, to make the best, most trusted forecast that we feel confident sharing with our viewers.”
