Here’s a wild Milwaukee Brewers theory. But then, this is baseball’s silly season, when somebody suddenly thinks Jayson Werth’s worth is $126 million.
So in the spirit of that silliness … could the Brewers trade everybody’s favorite mustachioed closer? Could they ship out John Axford to shore up other areas of need?
It’s a theory I neither endorse nor expect to happen. Frankly, I figure Axford pitches here until every man, woman and child in Milwaukee is photographed wearing a fake mustache. In fact, the thought of trading him didn’t even cross my mind until the Brewers made the calculated gamble of offering arbitration Francisco Rodriguez.
Here’s why.
If K-Rod accepts Milwaukee’s arbitration offer, the resulting one-year contract will probably end up in the $13 million range. That’s a boatload of midmarket Brewers bucks for a guy to pitch the eighth inning. And because the Brewers would still have Axford closing games, the eighth inning is exactly where Rodriguez would end up.
But the Brewers offered arbitration precisely because they don’t expect Rodriguez to accept it. They expect he and agent Scott Boras will reject it in favor of a more lucrative long-term deal elsewhere. And when that happens, the Brewers will be compensated for losing him to free agency with two extra high draft picks.
Which is really what Brewers general manager Doug Melvin wants, given how he depleted Milwaukee’s farm system by trading for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.
Ah… but the best laid plans of mice and general managers…
What if, in an oversaturated closer market, Rodriguez can’t find a lucrative long-term deal to his liking? What if he and Boras decide the best move is to grab the Brewers’ millions and try again next year?
Cue the wild theory.
Knowing they’re on the hook for an unexpected $13 million, what do the Brewers do then? Moan about how their offseason budget is shot. How they have no money left to sign, among other things, a shortstop? Or do they get a little creative?
Axford should make about a half-million dollars in 2012 then see that salary take some nice bumps when he’s arbitration-eligible over the next three seasons. He’s coming off a 2011 season so good that he finished ninth in the National League Cy Young voting. His trade value may never be higher than right now.
Could the Brewers take advantage of that? Knowing they already had another closer in K-Rod – whether they wanted him or not – would the Brewers try to make the best of a bad situation?
Yes, trading Axford clearly weakens Milwaukee’s bullpen. Especially when it was such a strength in 2011 with the likes of LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito, both of whom are now free agents. But Milwaukee’s farm system is in a much better position to replenish the bullpen than other areas of the team, and free-agent bullpen arms usually come cheaper than free-agent shortstops. When you’re a team like the Brewers, you have to gamble somewhere.
And Milwaukee’s other offseason needs look far more pressing than the bullpen. The Brewers must rebuild their infield. They’re without a shortstop. Questions surround third baseman Casey McGehee, who’s coming off the worst year of his career. And when free-agent first baseman Prince Fielder signs his megadeal elsewhere, Milwaukee’s best option to replace him will be unproven minor leaguer Mat Gamel.
Trading Axford would surely boost that rebuilding project. Maybe he gets the Brewers a serviceable shortstop and/or some insurance at the corners. Exactly who and from what team are discussions for another time. But somebody would want him. In fact, it would probably be a fairly long list. He’s inexpensive All-Star talent. The fake mustache sales are just a bonus.
But like me, you don’t expect those mustaches to be sold anywhere but Miller Park.
Truthfully, when it comes to the notion of trading Axford, there’s a better chance that Fielder re-signs with the Brewers. K-Rod will almost certainly sign that lucrative long-term deal somewhere else. The Brewers won’t be stuck with a $13 million setup man, so they won’t have to get creative with Axford, right?
Of course, a year ago, nobody expected them to creatively get Greinke in exchange for shortstop Alcides Escobar and friends.
It was a rather silly notion.
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