Thursday- Swing more or less?

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Some things to read while picking out a gift.

The MLB offseason is officially underway this morning after the World Series wrapped up on Wednesday night, and the Milwaukee Brewers have a lot of work to do in the coming months if they intend to improve upon this season’s 82-win campaign. I’ve mentioned previously that the team set a near-franchise low with a .311 on-base percentage in 2014, and at least one writer has a list of suggestions for how they can improve.

Jonathan Judge of Disciples of Uecker identified longer at-bats, laying off the first pitch and improved pitch selection as three things the Brewers can do to walk more often. However, I think there’s more to improving offensive production than simply drawing more walks.

I took to Twitter to open a conversation on this matter last week:

2014 NL hitters slugged .406 in PAs where they swung at the first pitch, and .373 when they didn’t. Roughly 71% of first pitches were taken.

— Kyle Lobner (@BrewFrostyMug) October 24, 2014

I wonder if increasing first pitch swing % is the new market inefficiency. A first pitch fastball might be the best pitch you see.

— Kyle Lobner (@BrewFrostyMug) October 24, 2014

I suspect that a league-wide emphasis on long at-bats and high on-base percentages has led to a scenario where pitchers are very likely to throw a hittable first pitch, knowing the batter is likely to take it and allow them to get ahead in the count. In his piece, Judge acknowledges that the first pitch of an at-bat is a strike 61 percent of the time, as compared to 33% of other pitches.

I don’t know if it’ll happen for the Brewers, but I think at some point, we’re going to start to see teams experience success by acknowledging that plate discipline is more than just “not swinging.” Making solid contact with good pitches to hit, regardless of when they come in the count, is every bit as important and perhaps more important than laying off pitches to extend at-bats.

Voting is open for the No. 9 spot in those rankings and, as of this writing, Matt Garza leads Scooter Gennett by two votes. You have until noon today to weigh in on that poll.

Gennett is another aggressive Brewer at the plate, having drawn just 22 walks (including five intentional passes) in 474 plate appearances in 2014. Gennett figures to get the lion’s share of the playing time at second base next season with Rickie Weeks likely to depart, but Noah Jarosh of Brew Crew Ball says the Brewers should still look for options to get him out of the lineup against left-handed pitchers.

Of course, Weeks isn’t actually a free agent yet. The Brewers hold an $11.5 million club option on the veteran second baseman for 2015, and he won’t be able to hit the open market until or unless the Brewers decline it in the next few days. Michael Trzinski of Reviewing the Brew has a look at that decision.

Assuming the Brewers opt to let Weeks hit the market, he’ll be one of four 2014 Brewers on FanGraphs’ crowd-sourced list of this winter’s top 55 free agents. Here are the Brewers listed, with the median contract prediction from the FanGraphs community:

It’s possible the Brewers may allow all four of those players to leave and spend the money elsewhere to fill gaps in the roster. They have some work to do this winter if they’re going to crack this list: Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth left them off his collection of 10 teams most likely to make the World Series in 2015, while NL Central rivals St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Chicago are all mentioned.

In the minors:

• First baseman Nick Ramirez had three hits and drove in a run but it was not enough as Glendale lost 5-4 to Peoria in the Arizona Fall League on Wednesday (box score). Wei-Chung Wang started the game and allowed a single run on four hits over four innings, catcher Shawn Zarraga had a hit and scored a run and center fielder Tyrone Taylor went 0-for-4.
• Shortstop Orlando Arcia went 0-for-4 but Caribes beat Margarita 4-2 in Venezuela anyway (box score). 2014 Huntsville Star Greg Holle pitched a scoreless inning for the losing side.

Closer to home, the Brewers have announced a new promotion just in time for your holiday shopping: The “Timeless Ticket” is a brass, personalized ticket guaranteeing a fan one ticket and the ability to purchase up to three more for any single regular season or postseason game from now through 2050. Is costs $1,000 and comes with a wood display base.

Around baseball:

Angels: Outfielder Tony Campana declined an outright assignment to the minors and is now a free agent.
Cubs: Reportedly hired former Rays manager Joe Maddon to the same position. Also, pitcher James McDonald has refused an outright assignment to the minors and is now a free agent.
Reds: Exercised pitcher Johnny Cueto’s contract option for 2015 and declined options for outfielder Ryan Ludwick and third baseman Jack Hannhan.

Of course, the big story around baseball on Wednesday was the Giants beating the Royals 3-2 in Kansas City to win the 2014 World Series. Madison Bumgarner pitched five innings in relief on two days’ rest to pick up the longest save in World Series history, and was a clear choice for series MVP.

If Bumgarner hadn’t pitched so spectacularly, it might have been possible to make a case for 2012 World Series MVP Pablo Sandoval to win the award again in 2014. Sandoval hit .429 with a .467 on-base percentage and .536 slugging in the series, and scored the Giants’ first run on Wednesday after being hit by a pitch. Plunk Everyone notes that three players in MLB history have come around to score after being hit by a pitch in Game 7 of a World Series, and all three players’ teams went on to win the games.

Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar also had a solid series, going 9-for-29 at the plate for a .310 average. Escobar played in all 177 regular season and postseason games for the Royals this season, and Patrick Green of Call to the Pen has a look at his quiet success.

And with that, Major League Baseball is done playing games that count until April of 2015. Players with at least six years of MLB service time who aren’t under contract for 2015 became free agents this morning, and are free to sign with other teams in five days. It’s time to fire up the hot stove.

As is typically the case, this winter’s list of available players will include a few attempting to make their way over from Asia. That list grew slightly on Wednesday night when Korea’s SK Wyverns announced their intention to post left-handed pitcher Kwang-hyun Kim. Kim is 26 years old, has played eight seasons in Korea’s top league and had a 3.39 ERA with 131 strikeouts over 156 2/3 innings in 2014.

I don’t know how hard Kim throws, but I do know that across baseball, teams are developing more and more pitchers who can reach the upper limits when it comes to velocity. Aaron Gleeman of Hardball Talk spotted a table showing that Royals pitchers hit or exceeded 97 mph with a pitch 2,287 times this season. The Brewers threw 799 pitches that reached that mark, good for eighth place on that list.

Today in baseball economics: The Diamondbacks are set to sign a new 15-20 year television contract that could double or triple their revenue from that source. Arizona received $31 million for its broadcast rights in 2014. You can add that revenue to the money they pocketed by selling nearly 10,000 $25 corn dogs at Chase Field this season.

Finally, with help from the Baseball Reference Play Index, we’d like to wish a happy birthday today to:

• 2007-12 Brewer Manny Parra, who turns 32 (Today In Brewer History).
• 2006-08 Brewer Laynce Nix, who turns 34.
• Brewers bullpen coach Lee Tunnell, who turns 54.
• 1994 Brewer Dave Valle, who turns 54.
• 1953-62 Milwaukee Brave Joe Adcock, who would have turned 87 (Today In Brewer History).
• 1963-65 Milwaukee Braves manager Bobby Bragan, who would have turned 97. 

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I can’t look away.

Drink up.

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