The best news to come out of Spring Training?
For cows, it’s Prince Fielder’s conversion to veggie burgers.
For New York sportswriters, it’s the mouth of Hank Steinbrenner.
But for the Milwaukee Brewers, it’s Sports Illustrated backing the Chicago Cubs.
As if the Cubbies didn’t have enough working against them – you know, that whole “Anyone Can Have a Bad Century” thing – now they’ve got the SI jinx to contend with. Not only has the venerated mag picked Chicago to win the National League Central, but it’s got the Cubs going all the way to the World Series.
SI even had the gall to pick the Brewers not second, but third. Behind the Cincinnati Reds. Maybe they’ve been talking to Francisco Cordero’s agent.
Regardless, this is good news for our hometown nine. Perhaps not so good as, say, 200 innings from Ben Sheets, but a fine facsimile. Because I don’t know the exact success rate of SI’s predictions, but it probably makes Uecker’s batting average look pristine.
SI isn’t the only one dissing the Brewers, though.
If you liked Pedro Gomez’s coverage of the Barry Bonds beat, then you’ll absolutely love him now. That’s because he’s the only one of 19 ESPN “experts” who picked the Brewers to win the NL Central. Everybody else – from Hall of Famer Peter Gammons to Enrique Rojas of ESPNdeportes.com to fantasy guru Eric Karabell picked… you guessed it… the Cubs.
On the bright side, at least Peter Pascarelli, Jonah Keri and Keith Law had the Brew Crew winning the Wild Card. But nobody, not even Mr. Gomez, said the Brewers were headed to the World Series.
Which brings me to why everyone except Pedro is wrong.
There’s this perception out there that the Cubs have far more talent than Milwaukee. But when exactly did the Cubs become George Clooney to Milwaukee’s Carrot Top?
Remember, these two teams were just two games apart at the end of 2007. And that’s when Milwaukee’s bullpen – save for Cordero – resembled something out of Major League III during the team’s second-half swoon.
Fast forward to 2008, when the Brewers have completely overhauled the pen, and evaluate the two teams position by position. Here are the depth charts for the Cubs and Brewers.
C – Geovany Soto or Jason Kendall: Sure, Kendall may be two years shy of doing AARP commercials, but there’s an old saying about rookie starting catchers. Don’t trust them. Edge: Brewers.
1B – Derrek Lee or Prince Fielder: Lee may still be one of the game’s best defensive first basemen, but Fielder’s an offensive beast. Edge: Brewers.
2B – Mark DeRosa or Rickie Weeks: DeRosa has the track record, but Weeks has far more upside. Still, Weeks has to prove it over a full season. Edge: Even.
SS – Ryan Theriot or J.J. Hardy: Take your pick, Theriot’s speed or Hardy’s power, and defense is a wash. Edge: Even.
3B – Aramis Ramirez or Bill Hall: I like Billy to have a bounce-back year, but Ramirez is one of the best third basemen in baseball. Edge: Cubs.
LF – Alfonso Soriano or Ryan Braun: They’re essentially the same player, a power-hitting, middle-of-the-order former infielder with good speed. Soriano’s more experienced, but Braun’s healthier. Edge: Even.
CF – Felix Pie or Mike Cameron/Tony Gwynn: Someday, Pie may be a fine center fielder, but today is not that day. Even before Cameron returns from his 25-game suspension, the Brewers have the better player in Gwynn. Edge: Brewers.
RF – Kosuke Fukudome or Corey Hart: Cubs fans tout Fukudome as the best Asian import this side of Lexus. But he has to prove it over time in the majors. Hart, meanwhile, has both power and speed, and he may be the most underrated player in Milwaukee. Edge: Even.
Starting pitchers – I’ll give you Carlos Zambrano over Ben Sheets, just so long as Z doesn’t make a habit of punching his new catcher. But if Sheets is healthy, it’s a slim edge. I’ll give you Ted Lilly over Jeff Suppan, too, and by a wider margin. But that’s it. The foursome of Yovani Gallardo, Carlos Villanueva, Manny Parra and Dave Bush, however collectively young they may be, are simply more reliable than Chicago’s Ryan Dempster, Rich Hill (who had an awful spring), Jason Marquis and Jon Lieber. Remove Bush from the equation and it’s not even close. Edge: Brewers.
Relief pitchers – If you go purely on potential and experience, then Milwaukee wins this battle easily. But the truth is, nobody knows what to expect from Brewers closer Eric Gagne. Ditto for fellow old guys Salomon Torres and Guillermo Mota, though I expect good things from David Riske, and I think Derrick Turnbow doesn’t deserve all of the abuse he takes. But things are no more settled Chicago’s pen. New closer Kerry Wood makes Sheets look like Jack LaLane. Setup flamethrower Carlos Marmol is still learning and Bobby Howry couldn’t take the closer’s role from Wood. Carmen Pignatiello is new as the lefty specialist, and Michael Wuertz may be steady, but won’t set the world afire. In other words… Edge: Even.
Manager – Lou Piniella or Ned Yost: Not even having Ted Simmons on the bench can help Yost win this battle. Edge: Cubs.
Add it all up. The Brewers are better at three positions, while the Cubs are better at one. The Brewers are better when it comes to four of six starting pitchers. The pens are equally mysterious. The Cubs have a better manager.
Does that sound like overwhelming superiority to you? Or is this just the biggest national media snow job since weapons of mass destruction?
In other words, clear your October schedules, Milwaukee. You’ll need the time to watch your NL Central champs.
And finally
If any Cubs fans want to start an argument with you, print a copy of this for them. It’s a year-by-year retrospective of what’s gone wrong for the Cubs since their last World Series.
Just make sure there’s a lot of paper in the printer. It’s a long, long story.
Tune in every Tuesday morning from 6 a.m. to 7 a.m. when I join Doug Russell and Mike Wickett on SportsRadio 1250 AM. Except for this week, when Tuesday’s with Howie airs on Wednesday. And don’t forget to check out our Bar Time column.