Mike McCarthy just flushed half the coaching staff out of Green Bay. But could he be following Bob Sanders and friends down the drain?
Don’t be surprised if 2009 is McCarthy’s last stand. Ditto for General Manager Ted Thompson (which would make a lot of people happy, judging by the 73 percent of our poll respondents who thought Thompson should be canned right now.)
But isn’t it too early for those predictions, you may wonder? Not at all, because all the leading indicators are there.
Performance-wise, the duo is behind the curve. The Packers are 32-34 since Thompson took over in 2005. McCarthy came on board in 2006, making his record an uninspiring 28-22. Green Bay has been to the playoffs just once since 2005. The clock isn’t just ticking, it’s thumping like a bass drum.
Moreover, Thompson and McCarthy have run off all the scapegoats. Brett Favre is gone as quarterback/resident legend. Sanders is gone as defensive coordinator. Also out the door is special teams coordinator Mike Stock, who chose to “retire” over the weekend. Sure he did. And some 2 million people chose to “look for other work” in 2008.
So if the Packers don’t win in 2009, there’s nobody left to blame. And lest you say one year isn’t enough time to turn around a team, I direct your attention to the Miami Dolphins (from 1-15 to 11-5), the Baltimore Ravens (5-11 to 11-5) and the Atlanta Falcons (4-12 to 11-5).
But just winning in 2009 may not be enough. Thompson and McCarthy might have to win big. Because the alternatives to both of them get a lot more attractive in 2010, when a trio of NFL giants will be looking for work.
Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher and the suddenly available Mike Shanahan have intimated they’ll stay out of the game in 2009. But speculation is rampant they’ll want to jump back in for the 2010 season. So if you’re a current head coach, you’d better have a heckuva run in 2009, because your ownership will have lots of incentive to shop elsewhere. And GMs aren’t immune, either. Because all three will either demand to bring their own GM or simply cut out the middleman and take the title for themselves.
All the more reason for Thompson and McCarthy to be looking over their shoulders. Because something is definitely gaining on them.
Favre Finale?
The annual Brett Favre retirement watch is officially on, courtesy of Peter King’s Sports Illustrated report. My favorite part was when Jets officials told Favre to take his time deciding.
Don’t worry. He will.
The Return of Millen
My wife, bless her heart, actually enjoys watching NFL games. Almost as much as figure skating. To the point that she thanked me for watching the weekend’s playoffs with her. She may as well thank me for liking beer.
Now she’s far from a football expert. Sometimes, she’ll need things explained to her, like half-the-distance penalties or the touchback rule or which team is wearing the purple. But every now and then, her football wisdom is worthy of Lombardi.
Like when Matt Millen showed up on our TV. (Which didn’t exactly please people in Detroit.)
At first, I thought the guy was a mirage. Maybe Bill Parcells with a mask. Because NBC didn’t really think Millen had any football credibility left, especially when it came to the playoffs. Right?
Um… no.
My wife wondered why I was laughing so hard, so I explained Matt Millen’s legacy in Detroit. How he took a once-proud franchise to a rock-bottom 0-16 record. How he had a penchant for wasting first-round draft picks on bad wide receivers. How he was now roundly regarded as the worst general manager in NFL history.
“And why are they putting him on TV?” my wife asked.
Told you she was smart.
Later on, Bob Costas turned to Millen and studio partner Jerome Bettis with the words, “And we’ll see you guys in Tampa for the Super Bowl.” And my wife didn’t miss a beat.
“At least he’ll get there somehow.”
Say no to Lowe
I could go into a detailed update about all of the Milwaukee Brewers’ offseason needs, but Adam McCalvy has already done so at brewers.com. Suffice it to say, the short answer is still pitching, including a closer, with a side order of help at third base. But the Brewers need to be smart.
They’re doing just that with Trevor Hoffman, the all-time saves leader who wants out of San Diego. Ken Rosenthal of foxsports.com is generally spot on with his reports, and he writes that Hoffman could be very close to joining Milwaukee. And lest you think that Hoffman would be Eric Gagne: The Sequel, fear not. While Hoffman is no longer an elite stopper, he hasn’t had nearly the precipitous decline that Gagne experienced before coming to Milwaukee. Nor does Hoffman have Gagne’s injury history or his links to performance-enhancing drugs. In other words, he’s exactly the kind of smart, bargain signing that teams like Milwaukee need to make.
The same cannot be said for another free agent. The most hyped starting pitcher of the moment is Derek Lowe, a veteran sinkerball pitcher who reportedly wants $16 million a year (and once had an affair with a female sportscaster). But I’d stay away, and not just for the sake of our community’s marital sanctity.
Lowe’s in demand because, over the past four years, he’s won 54 games while posting an earned run average of 3.59. Better yet, he hasn’t missed a start. All of which looks pretty attractive on the surface. But there’s a lot of makeup caked on Lowe’s 35-year-old face.
People forget that Lowe’s numbers from 2005-2008 came with the Los Angeles Dodgers, which means half of his starts were in one of baseball’s best pitcher’s parks. I’ll leave it to the math majors to explain just how much Dodger Stadium benefits pitchers, but it’s a heck of a lot. Just ask Lowe, who was in Boston before L.A. And as a full-time starter for the Red Sox in 2003 and 2004, his ERAs were 4.47 and 5.42.
Other, more recent red flags can be found among Lowe’s road numbers from the past three seasons. Lowe was 17-18 with a 4.24 ERA away from Dodger Stadium (and 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA in three starts at Miller Park, including a 9.00 ERA in his past two starts here). That might not be bad from your third or fourth starter, but it’s sure not ace material. Especially when that “ace” is 35 and wants $16 million of your small-market payroll.
My advice to the Brewers: Don’t bother taking the Lowe road.
Ute Movement
Anybody have a good reason why Utah shouldn’t be college football’s national champion? Other than the fact that hardly anybody has watched their games?
Here’s what Utah has done this season. 1) Not lost. 2) Defeated four top-25 teams. 3) Not lost. 4) Won a road game at Michigan (something Wisconsin couldn’t do). 5) Not lost. 6) Throttled Alabama, the team “experts” agreed was the nation’s best throughout the season’s second half. 7) Simultaneously forged a better national title claim than Florida (The Gators beat Alabama 31-20 and have a 12-1 record; Utah beat ’Bama, 31-17 and is 13-0). 8) And still, not lost.
Utah’s main fault is playing in the wrong conference, the Mountain West. And the Mountain West’s main fault is running afoul of geography. It’s the Big East, minus all the media outlets. If you took Utah’s résumé and results, then superimposed them on, say, Rutgers or Louisville, you’d have a national champ.
You may not think Utah is the nation’s best team. But good luck finding any evidence to prove the point. And by any tangible measure, Utah has proven more than enough.
I’d love to see sports writers take a stand and vote the Utes No. 1 in the final Associated Press poll. I’d also love to see partisan-free politics and calorie-free Krispy Kremes. Yeah, I’m a dreamer.
And finally…
If you haven’t done so already, go ahead and seejoedunk.com. Then vote Milwaukee Bucks rookie Joe Alexander into the NBA Slam Dunk Contest. If for no other reason than to see more of the clever ads.
Tune in every Tuesday morning during the 6 o’clock hour when I join Doug Russell and Mike Wickett on SportsRadio 1250 AM for Tuesdays with Howie. You can also find the segments in their Audio Vault. And don’t forget to check out our new fitness column, Training with Tim.
