If I Were A Member of the Academy Part 1

If I Were A Member of the Academy Part 1

Attention boys and girls, one of the holiest of all holy days is mere hours away…Oscar Nomination Day! Every year for the past 20 years, I have set my alarm clock to catch the announcement of the nominations on E!, the only channel that carries the live announcement here in the Central Time Zone. For several of the past 20 years, E! made a big to-do about covering the early-morning announcement (around 5:30 a.m. PST) with a live special that in early years ran for a full hour, and in later years was reduced to 30 minutes. For the past…

Attention boys and girls, one of the holiest of all holy days is mere hours away…Oscar Nomination Day!

Every year for the past 20 years, I have set my alarm clock to catch the announcement of the nominations on E!, the only channel that carries the live announcement here in the Central Time Zone.

For several of the past 20 years, E! made a big to-do about covering the early-morning announcement (around 5:30 a.m. PST) with a live special that in early years ran for a full hour, and in later years was reduced to 30 minutes. For the past two or three years, the entertainment channel has simply broken into scheduled programming to show the live announcement.

This Tuesday, January 25, Oscar winner Mo’Nique (Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire) and current Academy President Tom Sherak will take the stage at the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Hollywood at approximately 5:38 a.m. PST/7:38 a.m. CST to reveal this year’s nominations in 10 key categories: Best Supporting Actor and Actress, Best Actor and Actress, Best Original and Adapted Screenplay, Best Director, Best Animated Feature, and the biggie, Best Picture.

There have been some welcome surprise nominees over the years, like the supporting actress nods bestowed upon Marisa Tomei (for 1992’s My Cousin Vinny), Marcia Gay Harden (for 2000’s Pollock) and Maggie Gyllenhaal (nominated last year for Crazy Heart), with Tomei and Harden actually going on to claim the prize. Susan Sarandon (for 1981’s Atlantic City) and Keisha Castle-Hughes (for 2003’s Whale Rider) were both being pushed in the supporting actress race for their respective films, yet the voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (the group behind the Oscars) saw fit to place them both into the lead actress race. Could the same thing happen this year for True Grit’s leading lady, 14-year-old Hailee Steinfeld?

With the possibility of that in mind – and with the Golden Globes, the Satellite Awards (the non-televised cousin to the Globes), and a litany of film critic group honors behind us – I thought I’d whip out my Magic 8 Ball and prognosticate about who’ll likely be nominated, who should be, and who might come out of left field and garner a hotly-coveted nomination.

Best Supporting Actress
Will: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King‘s Speech), Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Melissa Leo (The Fighter) and Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Should: Adams, Bonham Carter, Barbara Hershey (Black Swan), Leo and Steinfeld (if she is not nominated in the lead actress race, as she richly deserves to be)
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom) and Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole)

Best Supporting Actor
Will: Christian Bale (The Fighter), Andrew Garfield (The Social Network), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right) and Geoffrey Rush (The King‘s Speech)
Should: Bale, Garfield, Renner, Sam Rockwell (Conviction) and Rush
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Matt Damon (True Grit), Michael Douglas (Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps) and Justin Timberlake (The Social Network)

Best Actress
Will: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter‘s Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan) and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Should: Bening, Kidman, Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Portman and Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Halle Berry (Frankie and Alice), Diane Lane (Secretariat) and Emma Stone (Easy A)

Best Actor
Will: Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), James Franco (127 Hours), Colin Firth (The King‘s Speech) and Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)
Should: Bridges, Leonardo DiCaprio (Inception), Eisenberg, Firth and Wahlberg
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Javier Bardem (Biutiful) and Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)

Best Director
Will: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Danny Boyle (127 Hours), David Fincher (The Social Network), Christopher Nolan (Inception) and David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Should: Aronofsky, Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right), Fincher, Nolan and Russell
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit), Debra Granik (Winter‘s Bone)  and Tom Hooper (The King‘s Speech)

Best Original Screenplay
Will: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right and The King’s Speech
Should: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right and The King’s Speech
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Easy A and Please Give

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will: 127 Hours, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3 and True Grit
Should: 127 Hours, The Social Network, The Town, True Grit and Winter’s Bone
Dark Horse Candidate(s): The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, I Love You Phillip Morris and Rabbit Hole

Best Animated Feature
Will: How To Train Your Dragon, Tangled and Toy Story 3
Should: Despicable Me, How To Train Your Dragon and Tangled
Dark Horse Candidate(s): The Illusionist and Shrek Forever After

Best Picture
Will: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, The Town and True Grit
Should: Black Swan, The Fighter, How To Train Your Dragon, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Town, True Grit and Winter’s Bone
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Easy A and Tangled

At the ripe age of 12, award-winning writer and aspiring filmmaker Mack Bates announced that he wanted to be “the black Peter Jennings.” This followed his earlier desire to be an astronaut and a cowboy. He’s sat through SpaceCamp, more times than he cares to share, and thanks to his tenure as a boy scout, has lassoed a steer or two. Journalism indeed beckoned, and Mack has written for a variety of publications and outlets since high school, including JUMP, the Leader, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and ReelTalk Movie Reviews. Mack has won awards from the Milwaukee Press Club in both the collegiate and professional divisions dating back to 1999. In 2013, he became the first writer to win the press club’s “best critical review” award in both competitive divisions. Also in 2013, Mack was among a group of adult mentors and teens who took part in the 2012 Milwaukee Summer Entertainment Camp to be honored by the Chicago/Midwest Chapter of the National Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (the group behind the Emmy Awards) with a Crystal Pillar Award for excellence in high school television production.