And The Nominees Are

As far as I’m concerned, Oscar Nomination Day is one of the holiest of all holy days. Every year since 1991, without fail, I have set my alarm to catch the announcement of the nominations on E!, the only channel that carries the live announcement here in the Central Time Zone.

For the majority of the past two decades, E! has made a big to-do regarding Oscar Nomination Day coverage. The announcement of the nominations has always been an early-morning affair (around 5:30 a.m. PST), and E! would program a live announcement special that ran for a full hour. Then about 10 years ago the nomination day special was reduced to 30 minutes. Then, for about the last 3 years, E! would simply break into scheduled programming to show the live announcement. Thankfully, they’ve recently expanded coverage of the live announcement back to 30 minutes.

This Tuesday, January 24th, actress Jennifer Lawrence (nominated last year for best actress for her riveting performance in the indie hit Winter‘s Bone) and current Academy President Tom Sherak will take the stage at the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Hollywood at approximately 5:38 a.m. PST/7:38 a.m. CST to reveal this year’s nominations in 10 key categories, including Best Supporting Actor and Actress, Best Actor and Actress, Best Original and Adapted Screenplay, Best Director, Best Animated Feature, and the biggie, Best Picture.

A number of possible contenders have yet to open in Milwaukee, including Albert Nobbs starring previous Oscar nominees Glenn Close and Janet McTeer; Shame starring Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan (a previous best actress nominee for An Education); A Dangerous Method starring Fassbender along with previous Oscar nominees Viggo Mortensen and Keira Knightley; We Need To Talk About Kevin with Oscar winner Tilda Swinton (which screened once at the 2011 Milwaukee Film Festival to a sold-out crowd); Coriolanus (which also screened once – by invitation only – at MFF 2011, and is directed and produced by star Ralph Fiennes, a previous two-time nominee); W.E. (directed by Madonna); and In The Land of Blood and Honey, a best foreign-language film contender written and directed by Oscar winner Angelina Jolie.

With that in mind – and with the Golden Globes, the Satellite Awards (the non-televised cousin to the Globes), and a plethora of film critic group honors behind us – I thought I’d prognosticate about who’ll likely be nominated, who should be, and who might come out of left field and garner a highly-coveted nomination.

NOTE: Two years after expanding the best-picture race from five to 10 films in a bid to draw a larger audience to the Oscar telecast, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has tweaked its rules again, switching to a more stringent, variable nominating system (a film now must receive at least 5 percent of the first-place votes to receive a nomination) that will result in between five and 10 movies in the contest each year. I will predict 10 contenders that I feel “will” likely be and “should” be nominated.

Best Supporting Actress
Will: Bérénice Bejo (The Artist), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Octavia Spencer (The Help), and Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Should: Chastain (Take Shelter), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) McTeer, Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus), and Spencer
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Chastain (The Tree of Life), Carey Mulligan (Shame), Kim Wayans (Pariah)

Best Supporting Actor
Will: Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn), Albert Brooks (Drive), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), and Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Should: Brooks, Hill, Nick Nolte (Warrior), Plummer, and John C. Reilly (Cedar Rapids)
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Armie Hammer (J. Edgar) John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene) Philip Seymour Hoffman (Moneyball), Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)

Best Actress
Will: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), Viola Davis (The Help), Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), and Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
Should: Close, Davis, Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), Streep, and Williams
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Adepero Oduye (Pariah), Tilda Swinton (We Need To Talk About Kevin), Charlize Theron (Young Adult)

Best Actor
Will: George Clooney (The Descendants), Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Ryan Gosling (Drive), and Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Should: Demián Bichir (A Better Life), Clooney, Michael Fassbender (Shame), Pitt, and Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50), Gosling (The Ides of March), Woody Harrelson (Rampart), Gary Oldham (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)

Best Director
Will: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), and Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Should: Allen, Hazanavicius, Malick, Payne, and Scorsese
Dark Horse Candidate(s): George Clooney (The Ides of March), Bennett Miller (Moneyball), Steven Spielberg (War Horse), Tate Taylor (The Help), Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive)

Best Original Screenplay
Will: 50/50 (Will Reiser), The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius), Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig), Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen), and Young Adult (Diablo Cody)
Should: 50/50 (Will Reiser), The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius), Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig), Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen), and Pariah (Dee Rees)
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Cedar Rapids (Phil Johnston), Margin Call (J.C. Chandor), Rango (John Logan, Gore Verbinski & James Ward Byrkit), The Skin I Live In (Pedro Almodóvar), Win Win (Tom McCarthy & Joe Tiboni)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will: The Descendants (Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash), The Help (Tate Taylor), Hugo (John Logan), The Ides of March (George Clooney, Grant Heslov & Beau Willimon), and Moneyball (Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin & Stan Chervin)
Should: The Adventures of Tintin (Steven Moffat, Edgar Wright & Joe Cornish), The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, and Moneyball 
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Bridget O‘Connor & Peter Straughan); War Horse (Lee Hall & Richard Curtis); Winnie the Pooh (Don Dougherty, Jeremy Spears, Don Hall, Stephen J. Anderson, Clio Chiang, Brian Kesinger, Nicole Mitchell, and Kendelle Hoyer)

Best Animated Feature
Will: The Adventures of Tintin, Arthur Christmas, Cars 2, Puss in Boots, and Rango
Should: The Adventures of Tintin, Gnomeo & Juliet, Rango, Rio, and Winnie the Pooh
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Happy Feet 2, Kung Fu Panda 2

Best Picture
Will: The Adventures of Tintin, The Artist, Bridesmaids, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, The Ides of March, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, and The Tree of Life
Should: The Adventures of Tintin, The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, Rango, The Tree of Life, and Winnie the Pooh
Dark Horse Candidate(s): Drive, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2, My Week With Marilyn, War Horse